Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
